The latest national survey by Trends and Insights for Africa (Tifa) has revealed that a majority of Kenyans remain opposed to the Broad Based Government (BBG) arrangement between President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, underscoring the persistent divisions in the country’s political landscape.
Kenyans Reject BBG Coalition
According to the findings, 52 per cent of respondents expressed opposition to the BBG, nearly double the 30 per cent who voiced support, while 15 per cent said they had no opinion and four per cent indicated they were unaware of the coalition between the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
 |
| Majority of Kenyans oppose the BBG coalition |
Tifa noted that support for the arrangement has remained relatively stable over the past year, with fluctuations tied to shifting political events, such as the aftermath of the Gen Z protests of June 2024 that initially gave rise to the coalition.
Regional variations in support were pronounced, with Central Rift, the Coast, and Lower Eastern registering increases of 15, five, and 11 percentage points respectively.
In contrast, Northern Kenya, Nyanza, and the Mt Kenya region recorded declines of 15, 14, and four percentage points.
Western Kenya experienced the sharpest drop, falling from 62 per cent in November 2025 to 29 per cent in the latest survey, while Nyanza support fell from 59 per cent to 35 per cent.
 |
| Regional shifts show sharp declines in Western Kenya and Nyanza, with modest gains in Central Rift, Coast, and Lower Eastern |
These shifts suggest that regional political dynamics and party alignments continue to shape public attitudes toward the coalition.
Within ODM, internal divisions remain evident. Supporters are increasingly aligning with the “Linda Mwananchi” faction led by Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna, which rose slightly from 73 per cent in May to 74 per cent in June.
Meanwhile, backing for the rival “Linda Ground” faction associated with ODM Deputy Party Leader Oburu Odinga declined from 24 per cent to 20 per cent, with undecided supporters rising from three per cent to six per cent.
 |
| ODM factional split shows Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi gaining ground as Oburu’s weakens |
These internal dynamics appear to have constrained the coalition’s ability to broaden its appeal nationally, limiting its capacity to consolidate support for President Ruto’s re-election bid.
Tifa observed that while the survey accurately reflects public opinion during the period of data collection, subsequent political developments could alter attitudes if the same questions were posed today.
The pollster also noted that support for the BBG has rarely exceeded one-third of the population, except during brief surges in May and August 2025, when support stood at 22 per cent and 44 per cent respectively.
 |
| BBG support peaked briefly in 2025 but has stagnated since |
The overall trend suggests that the coalition has struggled to sustain momentum and remains vulnerable to shifts in public sentiment.
The survey’s findings carry implications for the broader political environment as the country prepares for the 2027 polls.
With opposition outweighing support, the BBG arrangement may face challenges in mobilizing a national consensus, particularly in regions where backing has eroded sharply.
For policymakers and political strategists, the data underscores the importance of addressing internal party divisions and regional disparities if the coalition is to remain viable in the long term.
 |
| Dashboard summary highlights national opposition, regional disparities, and ODM factional dominance |
"
No comments:
Post a Comment